Advances in Social Behavior Research
Vol. 2, 07 September 2023
Open
Access | Article
Analysis and Prognostication of Residents' Per Capita Disposable Income in Hubei Province using Time Series Prediction Methods
* Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Abstract
To anticipate the fluctuations in per capita disposable income among Hubei Province inhabitants for the subsequent biennium, a dataset spanning from 2005 to 2022 was culled. Employed in this study were three distinct time series prognostication methodologies: Exponential Smoothing (Holt-Winter), Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA), and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). These techniques were applied to envision the forthcoming trajectory of per capita disposable income for the province's residents. By computing diverse metrics to assess predictive discrepancies—like the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE)—the effectiveness of the assorted models was gauged, culminating in the selection of the ARIMA model due to its superior performance. Capitalizing on this, approximations for per capita disposable income during 2023 and 2024 were extrapolated. The resultant prognoses project a sustained and noteworthy uptick in per capita disposable income for urban denizens of Hubei Province in the forthcoming biennial span. Ultimately, the findings were translated into actionable policy suggestions and deductions, rendering them highly pertinent for the dissection of Hubei Province's economic evolution.
Keywords
Per Capita Disposable Income; Time Series Prediction; Exponential Smoothing; ARMA; ARIMA
References
1. Winters, P. R. (1960). Forecasting Sales by Exponentially Weighted Moving Averages. Management Science, 6(3), 324-342. DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.6.3.324.
2. Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time series analysis: Forecasting and control. Holden-Day, San Francisco.
3. Box, G. E. P., Jenkins, G. M., & Reinsel, G. C. (1976). Time series analysis forecasting and control - Rev. ed. Journal of Time, 31(2), 238-242. DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.2009.00643.x.
4. Dang, X. X. (2022). A Study on the Influencing Factors of Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Residents Based on Semi-Parametric Model [Doctoral dissertation, Guangxi University of Science and Technology]. DOI: 10.27759/d.cnki.ggxgx.2022.000328.
5. Zhang, W. Y., Wang, K., & Yuan, H. J. (2022). Composite Forecast of Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban Residents in Anhui Province. Journal of Chongqing Technology and Business University (Natural Science Edition), 39(05), 93-104. DOI: 10.16055/j.issn.1672-058X.2022.0005.013.
6. Lei, Z. T. (2012). Analysis and Forecasting of Per Capita Disposable Income in Changsha City [Master's thesis, Central South University].
7. Wang, C. X. (2022). Forecasting and Influencing Factors Analysis of Per Capita Disposable Income of Urban and Rural Residents in Haikou City [Doctoral dissertation, Hainan Normal University]. DOI: 10.27719/d.cnki.ghnsf.2022.000133.
8. National Bureau of Statistics of China. (n.d.). China Statistics Database. Retrieved from https://data.stats.gov.cn/easyquery.htm?cn=E0103
9. Wei, S. Y. (2022). Prediction of China's GDP Based on Time Series Model [Doctoral dissertation, Shandong University]. DOI: 10.27272/d.cnki.gshdu.2022.003785.
Data Availability
The datasets used and/or analyzed during the current study will be available from the authors upon reasonable request.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License. Authors who publish this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See Open Access Instruction).
- Volume Title
- ISBN (Print)
- ISBN (Online)
- Published Date
- 07 September 2023
- Series
- Advances in Social Behavior Research
- ISSN (Print)
- 2753-7102
- ISSN (Online)
- 2753-7110
- DOI
- 10.54254/2753-7102/2/2023018
- Copyright
- 07 September 2023
- Open Access
- This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited